his is the second in a series of articles on critical thinking. In this article we will look at some of the most pressing problems that cry out for much better problem solving abilities.
Ebola’s spread in west Africa was predicted. Now, no thanks to the CDC it is here. The secret service is so disorganized it can’t protect the very place it was designed to protect; instead exhibiting a new mission objective: restraint. Veterans died waiting for medical care from the very organization tasked with providing it. Instead they were being used as pawns in an elaborate enrichment scheme. Ambassador of the United States died in a horrific attack in Benghazi. Spokespeople then made the incomprehensible point that foreign service is dangerous and thus presumably more foreign service officials will be killed in the line of duty. The 9/11 commission revealed a number of federal agencies so inept as to leave one breathless. The predictable, albeit preposterous congressional response was to create yet another federal bureaucracy. The Internal Revenue Service has now morphed into the federal economic police force, indistinguishable from that depicted in the book 1984.
The above was pointed out by Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal, October 9, 2014. He goes on to say that it is now past time to start thinking about how much can actually go wrong at so many federal agencies. And while the knee-jerk response is predictable—they all need more money—this is no longer acceptable to the American people.
No doubt our contemporary society has become complex. Henninger points out that studies done for the burgeoning software industry conclude repeatedly that its most difficult problem, looming across all domains, is not engineering failure, but human error. Indeed a study for a major insurer, Munich Re, found that an astonishing $1.6 trillion in losses between 2001 and 2011 were due to human error and bad judgment. This is identical to studies conducted to examine the cause of increasing airline accidents in the late 1980’s. Human error was the culprit.
The political class is clueless about what to do. Their attempts at reform legislation such as Dodd-Frank, ObamaCare, Sarbanes-Oxley, and a slew of others, have only made matters worse. Revealing their predilection for a singular response (more regulation) for a myriad of socio-economic problems relegates to them the unflattering status of a “one-trick-pony”.
When struggling with an answer of what to do, Henninger brilliantly points out that if progressivism’s answer is a giant centralized server farm running the whole government, an enormous algorithm with Google’s Eric Schmidt seated at the control board……good luck with that.
Before we jump into the fray, let us pause a moment and reflect on what we now call Critical Thinking.
The first thing to keep in mind is that as thinking beings, our fundamental choice is we either embrace reason or we do that which is hostile to reason. Remembering all the while that if something is hostile to reason the equation is straightforward: It not only won’t work, it can’t work.
Engaging the critical thinking process is our preferred alternative to the Wizard of Oz style global algorithm. So let us take to heart the cautionary note by J. W. Forester. “Complex systems behave counter-intuitively. That is the plausible tends to be wrong”. Therefore to actually get it right we must think critically.
So are we doing things as a nation that are hostile to reason? I submit that we are. We have as a culture lost our ability to solve problems. In other words, we have not yet learned how to embrace reason. The best way to embrace reason is to engage in critical thinking. Critical thinking, while being around for quite a while, has been rediscovered by many causing a level of interest that is sweeping the nation. The first principle of critical thinking is this: what is most important is not what you think, but how you think. Critical thinking is key.
Look at it this way: we have tried everything, I mean everything, but critical thinking. This includes 1) conventional wisdom which is almost always wrong; 2) expert opinion which enjoys a track record no better that random chance; 3) heuristics (jumping to conclusions) which makes matters worse; 4) ad hoc approaches which saves time and costs little but will never perform; 5) politically correct argumentation which destroys clarity of thought.
The first thing we must insist on is that when dealing with a troubling situation or problem is to accurately define the problem for which we are seeking a solution. In this way we can begin to apply critical thinking instead of behaving like a “one-trick-pony”. As many have pointed out, problem definition is our biggest challenge.
When presented with the hypothetical question of what would he do if he had only one hour to come up with a solution, otherwise the world would end, Einstein stated that he would spend the first 50 minutes defining the problem. All the rest he said is simple mathematics.
And then there is Daniel Kahneman. Dr. Kahnamen is the author of the best seller Thinking Fast and Slow . In this book Kahneman lays out the argument that with respect to performing mental activities, most humans will make errors of perception and judgment, some of which will be quite serious, jeopardizing life and property.
Daniel sets out to explain the number and kinds of mental errors that have been encountered by researchers who have studied human cognition. He organizes his arguments under the somewhat arbitrary categories of 1) systems of thought; 2) frame of reference; and 3) The experience-remembering dichotomy.
Under system of thought, system one and system two are proposed. System ne is quick, easy to use, and almost always inaccurate or dangerously misleading. The reason why, he explains, that many use a flawed system of thought is partly inherited (fight or flee), and partly because of laziness. In this I tend to disagree. I believe, and I have shown in my research, that System one type thinking is a default mode when one has not been introduced to and taught a better way to think. We are not born with a natural ability to think effectively and solve problems. In this, training and practice is essential. System two, in Kahneman’s paradigm, is in stark contrast to system one in that it is slow, deliberate, and usually more accurate. This system is however rarely used. While fast and slow is an interesting characterization, this begs the question: how can one think both accurately and in a timely manner; that is fast & accurate. This I will discuss in future articles.
Under Frame of Reference, Kahneman discusses the distinction between theory, promoted by what he calls the Econs, and the Real-World. Theory and practice do not align so what the research community believes that which should occur, in terms of human behavior, actually does not.
Experience-Remembering dichotomy consists of the the significant difference between what actually occurred and the memory of the occurrence. This distinction, between the actual event and the memory of the event produces what the Toltec Masters refer to as the “dream world”. This is often inaccurate, but convenient.
I will list a few of the specific thinking errors specified in Kahenam’s book:
- Information Limitation
- Errors of substitution
- Stereotyping
- Base rate neglect
- WYSIATI (what you see is all there is)
- Halo effect
- Illusions of validity
- Overconfidence of skill
I believe that the great service Kahnamen has done is to issue a wake-up call for us, as individuals and as a nation, to embrace that which I call critical thinking.
In the next article I will introduce the Critical Thinking Model and begin to discuss its powerful attributes. As they say in the world of critical thinking: Prepare to be Amazed.